None of those teams will be in the top 12 in the Associated Press rankings on Saturday, Feb. 1. And that should matter. How? Well, history says it does. History says they can forget about One Shining Moment. History has been known to lie, but in this case, not often.
The AP poll was born in 1949. In the 71 years since, care to guess how often the eventual national champion was ranked in the top 12 on the morning of Feb. 1? That’d be 62 times, or 87 percent. Recently, the trend is even more striking. The winner has come from the top-12 in 29 of the past 31 years — the only exceptions unranked Connecticut in 2014 and No. 24 Syracuse in 2003.
Those on the outside — No. 13 Kentucky, No. 14 Michigan State and No. 15 Maryland, for example — would consider all that enough poppycock to fill an ocean tanker, and they could well be right. A poll on Feb. 1 might not be any more reliable of a tournament predictor than a rodent on Feb. 2 — Groundhog Day — is about the weather. But since both seem to be customs, here are the Dozen of Destiny, and something to really, really like about each of them, as the momentous day nears.
No. 1 Baylor
The first 7-0 conference start since 1958, the first unbeaten January since 1948, extraordinary stuff for the Bears. But even more impressive are five wins over a ranked quintet of Villanova, Arizona, Texas Tech, Kansas and Butler, while trailing only 31 of 200 minutes, and never by more than six points. The 67-55 whipping of Kansas — holding the Jayhawks to their lowest home score in two decades and handing Bill Self only his 14th loss in 270 Allen Fieldhouse games — might be the showcase victory of the season, by anybody.
No. 2 Gonzaga
Ah, the sheer statistical tonnage of the Zags. First in the nation in scoring, second in assist-turnover ratio, third in rebound margin and field goal shooting. The only team in the country with six players averaging in double figures. The 34 regular-season conference wins in a row, the 35 conference road wins in a row — on and on it goes. The highest-scoring team is not supposed to win the national championship. It’s happened just once in 56 years, but that was Villanova only two years ago, so there.
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